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Aviation futures
The aviation industry accounts for nearly one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually against a global total in excess of 40 billion tonnes, which means it is around 2.5% of total...
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Can renewable deployment be exponential?
In recent months we have all had to learn quickly about exponential rates of change as COVID-19 spread throughout the world, but as has been seen with the virus itself, exponential patterns typically...
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Rethinking the 2020s
As we approached 2020, the mnemonic COVID-19 didn’t even exist. There were great expectations for a decade of rapid change in the energy system, countries submitting ambitious nationally determined...
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Exploring the energy future
Every few years Shell releases a new set of overarching global energy scenarios and this week marks the launch of our Energy Transformation Scenarios. Three scenarios, namely Waves, Islands and Sky...
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Pathways to 1.5°C
In 2018 when the IPCC released their Special Report on 1.5°C, they presented four archetype scenarios to help readers understand that there were fundamentally different approaches to limit long term...
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Reflecting on the IPCC Synthesis Report through new Shell scenarios
After a year of work, with a few hints along the way offered via this blog, the Shell scenarios team launched The Energy Security Scenarios this week. This is the team I am proud to be a member of and...
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Developing countries hold the key to reaching Net Zero Emissions
A guest post by my scenario team colleagues Thomas Akkerhuis and Georgios Bonias In a few days, leaders from the world’s largest economies will gather in India for the 2023 G20 summit. The G20...
View ArticleThe pencil problem
Many years ago the well know economist Milton Friedman made a short film about pencils that continues to resonate today. While the film can be interpreted as simply a defence for capitalism, which...
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Green Dream or Innovation Wins?
I recently attended an emission trading conference in Paris and like many such events in the EU now, one of the first items on the agenda (and in this case it was the first) was a presentation and...
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When might fossil fuel phase out happen?
In the run-up to COP28 and at the conference itself, a key call by some nations and many observers is to include language in the COP decisions to signal the phase out of fossil fuels. While there is...
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